Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Gargantua on Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:46 pm

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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by  on Sat Jun 03, 2017 8:13 am

MIT Technology Review wrote:Sustainable Energy
Trump Misused MIT Research in Reasons for Ditching Climate Deal
MIT scientist says his study showed the Paris climate agreement was a good first step, but more emissions cuts —not fewer — are needed.
by James Temple June 1, 2017

As President Donald Trump explained his rationale for withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement on Thursday, he cited research that seemed to suggest the global emissions cuts agreed to under the deal wouldn’t make a significant difference in worldwide temperatures.
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“It is estimated it would only produce a two-tenths of one degree … Celsius reduction in global temperature by the year 2100,” he said, during a press conference in the White House Rose Garden. “Tiny, tiny amount.”

But that’s not actually what the relevant research found, or what the scientists in question concluded.

Trump didn’t name the source of that figure during his press conference, in which he announced the United States would withdraw from the landmark agreement to lower worldwide greenhouse-gas emissions. But Reuters reported that White House documents cited a 2016 study produced by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, titled “How much of a difference will the Paris Agreement make?”

In fact, the “two-tenths of one degree” figure seems to have come from an earlier study by the same group conducted in 2014, before the Paris deal was finalized the following year. It didn’t include all the eventual commitments to cut emissions by participating nations, or assume any continuation of those pledges beyond 2030, says Erwan Monier, coauthor of the study and principal research scientist at MIT’s department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences.

It appears, he says, that the White House cherry picked the lowest number they could find among studies that explored the impact of the climate accord.

The figure in the 2016 study, which incorporated all the pledges made by nations participating in the agreement, is actually between 0.6 and 1.1 °C. Just two degrees of warming above preindustrial conditions is considered a dangerous level of climate change, so scientists would consider more than half that amount to be a meaningful temperature reduction.

Additionally, the researchers came nowhere close to concluding from their findings that the Paris deal was not worth doing. In MIT News's write up of the study, Monier was quoted as saying, “The Paris agreement is certainly a step in the right direction, but it is only a step.”

Speaking with MIT Technology Review on Thursday, he added, “This idea that the Paris agreement has a negligible impact on future climate change is certainly not what we conveyed and was not the conclusion of our analysis. We make clear that if we want to limit warming to 2 °C, we need to do more and we need continued effort past 2030.”

Monier said that no one from the Trump administration contacted the group to provide an opportunity to discuss or explain their findings.

The projected temperature reduction was just one of many misleading or misunderstood data points that Trump cited in justifying his decision on Thursday, notably including a disputed economic report commissioned by business groups, as many other publications were quick to report.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608015/trump-misused-mit-research-in-reasons-for-ditching-climate-deal/

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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by MNE on Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:24 am

"the sky is falling the sky if falling"
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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by  on Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:42 am

Reci?

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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by MNE on Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:51 am

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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by  on Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:53 am

Sean Davis previously worked as an economic policy adviser to Gov. Rick Perry, as CFO of Daily Caller, and as chief investigator for Sen. Tom Coburn. He was named by The Hill as one of the top congressional staffers under the age of 35 for his role in spearheading the enactment of the law that created USASpending.gov. Sean received a BBA in finance from Texas Tech University and an MBA in finance and entrepreneurial management from the Wharton School.

... the guy seems legit, možeš nekad da iskopiraš i ceo tekst, šta sad.
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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by William Murderface on Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:11 pm



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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:15 pm

1. Zasto grafik pokriva period od samo trideset godina, ako se temperature dovoljno sistematski mere od kraja 19. veka?

2. Zasto je za referentnu i polaznu tacku odabran bas period 1979-1983, a ne recimo period 1975-1978?

Odgovore na ove pitanja nije tesko naci, za nekog ko ume da mucne svojom glavom. Hajde da te vidimo.


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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by MNE on Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:19 pm

kakve to veze ima ko je autor?! Osim ako ne misliš da je štelovao grafikon, ali ja to ne vidim.

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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by MNE on Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:27 pm

Radagast wrote:1. Zasto grafik pokriva period od samo trideset godina, ako se temperature dovoljno sistematski mere od kraja 19. veka?

2. Zasto je za referentnu i polaznu tacku odabran bas period 1979-1983, a ne recimo period 1975-1978?

Odgovore na ove pitanja nije tesko naci, za nekog ko ume da mucne svojom glavom. Hajde da te vidimo.
1. odlično pitanje, zašto se relevantnim smatra period od stotinak godina mjerenja ako planeta postoji par milijardi godina a život na njoj ko zna koliko miliona?

2. takođe, zašto se za referentnu i polaznu tačku uzima 1800 ili 1900 i neka a ne recimo 5000a p.n.e.
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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:38 pm

1. Nisam napisao da se period od 100 godina smatra relevantnim, nego da za taj period postoje precizni podaci posto se od tada sistematski mere temperature. Postoje procene za ranije periode, ali nemoguce je izracunati petogodisnje proseke za period Jure, jer se dinosaurusi nisu setili da mere i zapisuju temperaturu.

2. Moze da se uzme polazna tacka i 5000a p.n.e., ali ne za grafik sa petogodisnjim prosecima, iz razloga navedenog gore.

Nisi odgovorio na moja pitanja.


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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by William Murderface on Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:42 pm

MNE wrote:
Radagast wrote:1. Zasto grafik pokriva period od samo trideset godina, ako se temperature dovoljno sistematski mere od kraja 19. veka?

2. Zasto je za referentnu i polaznu tacku odabran bas period 1979-1983, a ne recimo period 1975-1978?

Odgovore na ove pitanja nije tesko naci, za nekog ko ume da mucne svojom glavom. Hajde da te vidimo.
1. odlično pitanje, zašto se relevantnim smatra period od stotinak godina mjerenja ako planeta postoji par milijardi godina a život na njoj ko zna koliko miliona?

2. takođe, zašto se za referentnu i polaznu tačku uzima 1800 ili 1900 i neka a ne recimo 5000a p.n.e.

Svasta od tebe, Zemlja je stara tek par hiljada godina. Dokazao isti ovakav strucnjak ko ovaj na kojeg se pozivas.



http://www.icr.org/article/evidence-for-young-world/


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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by MNE on Sat Jun 03, 2017 12:45 pm

Radagast wrote:1. Nisam napisao da se period od 100 godina smatra relevantnim, nego da za taj period postoje precizni podaci posto se od tada sistematski mere temperature. Postoje procene za ranije periode, ali nemoguce je izracunati petogodisnje proseke za period Jure, jer se dinosaurusi nisu setili da mere i zapisuju temperaturu.

2. Moze da se uzme polazna tacka i 5000a p.n.e., ali ne za grafik sa petogodisnjim prosecima, iz razloga navedenog gore.

Nisi odgovorio na moja pitanja.
pa baš to i jeste poenta, kako možemo da znamo da se hiljade i hiljade stogodišnjih perioda sa ovakvim promjenama temperature nisu već dešavali?!

to je ujedno i odgovor na tvoja pitanja
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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Sat Jun 03, 2017 1:11 pm

MNE wrote:
Radagast wrote:1. Nisam napisao da se period od 100 godina smatra relevantnim, nego da za taj period postoje precizni podaci posto se od tada sistematski mere temperature. Postoje procene za ranije periode, ali nemoguce je izracunati petogodisnje proseke za period Jure, jer se dinosaurusi nisu setili da mere i zapisuju temperaturu.

2. Moze da se uzme polazna tacka i 5000a p.n.e., ali ne za grafik sa petogodisnjim prosecima, iz razloga navedenog gore.

Nisi odgovorio na moja pitanja.
pa baš to i jeste poenta, kako možemo da znamo da se hiljade i hiljade stogodišnjih perioda sa ovakvim promjenama temperature nisu već dešavali?!

to je ujedno i odgovor na tvoja pitanja

Nije tacno da ne mozemo, na osnovu procena, da znamo kako se otprilike menjala temperatura od nastanka planete, nego da ne mozemo da pravimo grafik sa petogodisnjim prosecima za poslednjih pet milijardi godina, nego samo za poslednjih stotinu i nesto godina. Drugim recimo, imajuci u vidu preciznost podataka koje imamo na raspolaganju, mozemo govoriti o periodu od poslednjih nekoliko stotina miliona, sa jednom vrstom preciznosti, i o periodu od sto i nesto godina sa drugom vrstom preciznosti, ali nema valjanog razloga da se za polaznu tacku odabere 1979-1983.


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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by MNE on Sat Jun 03, 2017 2:09 pm

aham, a koji je valjani razlog za 1974u?!
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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Gargantua on Sat Jun 03, 2017 2:15 pm

jbt
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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Ointagru Unartan on Sat Jun 03, 2017 3:04 pm



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"Ne morate krenuti odavde da biste dosli tamo. Moguce je krenuti odavde i vratiti se ponovo tu, ali preko onoga tamo."
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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Guest on Sat Jun 03, 2017 5:45 pm

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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by otto katz on Sat Jun 03, 2017 5:50 pm

MNE wrote:aham, a koji je valjani razlog za 1974u?!


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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Filipenko on Sat Jun 03, 2017 6:34 pm

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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Gargantua on Sat Jun 03, 2017 6:54 pm

sapunjara 

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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Gargantua on Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:55 am

@NBCNightlyNews
Pres. Trump has used Twitter to share news report on London incident.

We aren't relaying president's retweet, as the info is unconfirmed.
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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Xexoxical Endarchy on Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:56 am

that's like soo meta


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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by Gargantua on Sun Jun 04, 2017 6:49 pm

Gargantua wrote:NSC Mekmaster je napisao tekst za WSJ, citiram najbitniji deo:
...


Nikolas Gvozdev:


“The world is not a ‘global community.'”

Last year, in attempting to discern the ethical and philosophical bases of candidate Donald Trump’s approach to world affairs, the first point I made was this: “There is no such thing as an international community. The “buck” stops with the nation-state and the nation-state decides what commitments it will assume in the global arena.” This week, two senior members of the Trump administration’s national security team, the National Security Advisory H.R. McMaster and the chair of the National Economic Council, Gary Cohn, penned an essay in the Wall Street Journal where they confirmed that this is indeed the philosophical and ethical approach that is shaping their approach to foreign policy. As if lifting text from last year’s analysis, they write:
The president embarked on his first foreign trip with a clear-eyed outlook that the world is not a “global community” but an arena where nations, nongovernmental actors, and businesses engage and compete for advantage. We bring to this forum unmatched military, political, economic, cultural, and moral strength. Rather than deny this elemental nature of international affairs, we embrace it.

This is not just meaningless verbiage or splitting of terminological hairs. When someone uses the term “international community” or “global community,” there are a set of assumptions in place: that the states which form part of this community share common values, interests, or standards; and that there are objectives which transcend the individual nations and to which states must be prepared to sacrifice some immediate benefit to achieve a common good. In turn, these assumptions can shape concrete policy choices–and in fact were part of the justifications cited by the previous Obama administration in entering into the Paris climate change accords, from which the current administration is now considering a U.S. withdrawal.

These comments suggest that while the Trump team accepts that there is an international system, it does not rise to the level of a community–a theme that has often been echoed by Chinese strategic thinkers. It also suggests that there are in fact no binding standards–political, ethical, or moral–standing above the nation-state. It further reinforces that the ethical approach being used by the administration “is defined in mercantilistic and utilitarian terms: treaties, alliances, and obligations are useful only to the extent they bring immediate and observable value to the participants—and can be rejected if they no longer generate profit. Moreover, no state can have obligations imposed on it that it does not freely consent to.”

There is a secondary set of concerns. If there is no global community, is there also no trans-Atlantic / Euro-Atlantic community as well–an association of Western states bound together both by common security and political institutions (although, with the apparent demise of the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, not to be connected in a common economic community) as well as acceptance of a series of shared values? Angela Merkel, chancellor of Germany, seems to have concluded after her meetings with President Trump (both at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization conclave and at the G-7 in Italy) that this may become a distinct possibility, with her call for Europeans (sans Americans and Britons) “to wage our own fight for our future.”

In Washington and New York, elites have taken for granted the durability of both the “global” and the “trans-Atlantic” communities, even as a growing number of Americans questioned their utility and value. I closed last year’s piece with this observation: “In this election, American voters will have the opportunity to choose between two very different approaches to foreign affairs, based on different ethical assumptions.” This op-ed suggests that this assessment has proven to be correct.


https://www.ethicsandinternationalaffairs.org/2017/implications-world-not-global-community/
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Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

Post by ontheotherhand on Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:38 pm

Hillary Clinton Is Furious. And Resigned. And Funny. And Worried.


The surreal post-election life of the woman who would have been president.

By REBECCA TRAISTER


Jedan long read.

Re: Jedno sasvim novo i drugačije Presidency..

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